- Goldman Sachs upgrades TFM 2/19/2013 w/ a price target of $60.00
- LFMG initiated coverage on TFM with a price target of $59.15 on 12/27/2012 & reaffirmed price target 1/8/2013.
***Get your trades from LMFG first ***
Looking Back on TFM:
1. I evaluated TFM because an interested investor asked what I thought about the company. After a quick analysis on 12/27/2012 (Seen Here) I felt confident placing a price target on the stock:
LFMG ‘s Price Target: $59.15 – 12/27/2012
I set price levels I thought TFM would trade within the short future. Using 12 months trailing EPS, I suggested TFM should command a current valuation of $44.80. The valuation aligned nicely with the charts providing many entrance points.
“Long term bullish, short term stop @ 44.50″
After an initial analysis we saw a low of $44.65 on 1/8/2013
2. Knowing the volatility and sluggishness of TFM could be concerning to shareholders- I was interested in delving deeper into a valuation that looked at every influencing factor that could influence the price. After looking over every minute detail I remained bullish and reaffirmed my buy rating on TFM with a price target of $59.15. I completed and posted the valuation before the market opened on 1/8/2013 (Seen Here) which I believed would be the best day to take a full position.
3. TFM reports Q4 earnings and will be providing forward guidance on their next conference call; March 4, 2013. Until more information becomes available my previous valuation remains the same.
Can’t win ‘em all, though I try to only tell share investment opportunities I’m most certain about.
A great transition into my next follow up;
NFLX: Going to the Moon on Pixie Dust!
Not a lot has changed with my sentiment towards NFLX. I believe the stock is trading with a very rich valuation. Closed @ $196.45 2/19/2013
Fundamental analysis by several analysts, including myself give NFLX a 1 year price target of $125 – $160.
With the information available today, it is enough to build the short case for NFLX with conviction. Albeit, this is why defining your downside risk- as seen in the last post about NFLX is so important before entering any trade.
Building the short case today for NFLX?
1. One could make a shell trade by shorting or longing NFLX on an earnings beat or miss by DISH. DISH has their conference call today at 12PM ET and reports earning BMO
ENGLEWOOD, Colo.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– DISH Network Corporation (NASDAQ: DISH) will host a conference call at noon ET on Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2013 to discuss its fourth quarter and year-end 2012 financial results. The dial-in number is (800) 616-6729.
DISH will distribute a financial results press release prior to the call. It will be available to view on the company’s Investor Relations website at http://dish.client.shareholder.com/releases.cfm.
2. FOMC Minutes @ 2PM ET, could indicate a reduction in QE and the market will take a breather as a whole…
It’s best to define your downside risk going into any trade, if you’re wrong you have control of how much your willing to lose. You move on to your next and curse NFLX once in awhile. If you’re right, you take what the market will give you and move on.